A
Base case
Range-boundBullish and bearish signals are balanced; no trend is confirmed yet.
updated 2026-11-08
Forecasts
Concrete market questions with probabilities, resolved automatically from stored prices and scored with the Brier score. The older rule-based direction calls are kept under their own tab.
Track record
0.260Our Brier
0.247Baseline Brier
63Resolved
22Open
Brier score: lower is better. Always saying 50% scores 0.250; the baseline always predicts each asset's share of up days.
Calibration
Bar: how often it happened · line: average predicted probability
Open
Next weekWill ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-12 than on 2026-11-05?
28%Baseline 23%
Will ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-12 than on 2026-11-05?
28%Baseline 23%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.95%/day; average move -1.00%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-12 than on 2026-11-05?
29%Baseline 27%
Will SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-12 than on 2026-11-05?
29%Baseline 27%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.73%/day; average move -0.36%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-12 than on 2026-11-05?
30%Baseline 27%
Will SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-12 than on 2026-11-05?
30%Baseline 27%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.41%/day; average move -0.64%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
37%Baseline 27%
Will Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
37%Baseline 27%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.98%/day; average move -0.28%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
62%Baseline 55%
Will VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
62%Baseline 55%
Rationale
20-day volatility 17.59%/day; average move +4.64%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
62%Baseline 59%
Will Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
62%Baseline 59%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.88%/day; average move +0.24%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
60%Baseline 45%
Will Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
60%Baseline 45%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.60%/day; average move +0.34%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
40%Baseline 41%
Will Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
40%Baseline 41%
Rationale
20-day volatility 2.12%/day; average move -0.48%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
43%Baseline 36%
Will Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
43%Baseline 36%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.14%/day; average move -0.18%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
45%Baseline 59%
Will Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
45%Baseline 59%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.32%/day; average move -0.14%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next weekWill S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
52%Baseline 64%
Will S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-14 than on 2026-11-07?
52%Baseline 64%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.81%/day; average move +0.04%/day, counted at half weight; about 5 trading days (one week).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
23%Baseline 32%
Will Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
23%Baseline 32%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.89%/day; average move -0.28%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
27%Baseline 50%
Will Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
27%Baseline 50%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.23%/day; average move -0.32%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
72%Baseline 64%
Will Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
72%Baseline 64%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.61%/day; average move +0.16%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
65%Baseline 45%
Will Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
65%Baseline 45%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.64%/day; average move +0.28%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
42%Baseline 41%
Will Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
42%Baseline 41%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.03%/day; average move -0.08%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
43%Baseline 55%
Will S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-02 than on 2026-11-02?
43%Baseline 55%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.73%/day; average move -0.06%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-03 than on 2026-11-03?
77%Baseline 59%
Will VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-03 than on 2026-11-03?
77%Baseline 59%
Rationale
20-day volatility 7.68%/day; average move +2.48%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-03 than on 2026-11-03?
31%Baseline 50%
Will Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-03 than on 2026-11-03?
31%Baseline 50%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.83%/day; average move -0.40%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-07 than on 2026-11-07?
7%Baseline 18%
Will ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-07 than on 2026-11-07?
7%Baseline 18%
Rationale
20-day volatility 2.08%/day; average move -1.32%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-07 than on 2026-11-07?
10%Baseline 27%
Will SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-07 than on 2026-11-07?
10%Baseline 27%
Rationale
20-day volatility 0.76%/day; average move -0.44%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Next monthWill SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-07 than on 2026-11-07?
10%Baseline 23%
Will SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-12-07 than on 2026-11-07?
10%Baseline 23%
Rationale
20-day volatility 1.48%/day; average move -0.84%/day, counted at half weight; about 21 trading days (one month).
How it resolves
Daily % changes reported by the market sources (Eastmoney / Sina / Yahoo) are compounded from the day after the question to the first trading day on or after the deadline. Yes if the total is above zero. With no market data within 7 days of the deadline, the question is voided.
Baseline
Not a prediction market: the share of up days over the same 20 trading days. Our Brier score is compared with it.
Resolved
| Question | Outcome | Ours | Baseline | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?+1.24% · 2026-11-07 | No | 39% | 32% | 0.372 |
| Will Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?+3.92% · 2026-11-07 | No | 57% | 59% | 0.185 |
| Will Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?+3.19% · 2026-11-07 | No | 37% | 45% | 0.397 |
| Will S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?+2.94% · 2026-11-07 | No | 44% | 50% | 0.314 |
| Will Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?-1.24% · 2026-11-07 | No | 38% | 45% | 0.144 |
| Will Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?+1.17% · 2026-11-07 | No | 42% | 41% | 0.336 |
| Will Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?-3.10% · 2026-11-07 | No | 61% | 50% | 0.372 |
| Will VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-31?+32.03% · 2026-11-07 | No | 62% | 59% | 0.144 |
| Will SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-08?-16.37% · 2026-11-07 | No | 38% | 32% | 0.144 |
| Will ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-08?-24.34% · 2026-11-07 | No | 44% | 32% | 0.194 |
| Will SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-07 than on 2026-10-08?-9.76% · 2026-11-07 | No | 23% | 41% | 0.053 |
| Will SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-05 than on 2026-10-29?-3.39% · 2026-11-05 | No | 29% | 18% | 0.084 |
| Will ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-05 than on 2026-10-29?-6.32% · 2026-11-05 | No | 29% | 18% | 0.084 |
| Will SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-05 than on 2026-10-29?-3.57% · 2026-11-05 | No | 38% | 41% | 0.144 |
| Will Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?-6.00% · 2026-11-03 | No | 10% | 23% | 0.010 |
| Will VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?+56.43% · 2026-11-03 | No | 50% | 59% | 0.250 |
| Will Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?-3.15% · 2026-11-02 | No | 55% | 59% | 0.302 |
| Will Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?+3.17% · 2026-11-02 | No | 50% | 50% | 0.250 |
| Will Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?-5.22% · 2026-11-02 | No | 71% | 59% | 0.504 |
| Will S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?-0.10% · 2026-11-02 | No | 69% | 55% | 0.476 |
| Will Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?-1.88% · 2026-11-02 | No | 17% | 36% | 0.029 |
| Will Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-11-02 than on 2026-10-03?+7.16% · 2026-11-02 | No | 18% | 27% | 0.672 |
| Will Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?-4.86% · 2026-10-31 | No | 49% | 41% | 0.240 |
| Will Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?-2.06% · 2026-10-31 | No | 71% | 68% | 0.504 |
| Will Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?-2.22% · 2026-10-31 | No | 44% | 55% | 0.194 |
| Will S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?-1.08% · 2026-10-31 | No | 54% | 59% | 0.292 |
| Will Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?-0.10% · 2026-10-31 | No | 33% | 36% | 0.109 |
| Will Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?+0.86% · 2026-10-31 | No | 38% | 41% | 0.384 |
| Will Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?+3.43% · 2026-10-31 | No | 57% | 45% | 0.185 |
| Will VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-31 than on 2026-10-24?-0.15% · 2026-10-31 | No | 64% | 64% | 0.410 |
| Will SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-29 than on 2026-10-22?-1.07% · 2026-10-29 | No | 30% | 23% | 0.090 |
| Will ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-29 than on 2026-10-22?-1.85% · 2026-10-29 | No | 28% | 27% | 0.078 |
| Will SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-29 than on 2026-10-22?+0.14% · 2026-10-29 | No | 22% | 36% | 0.608 |
| Will Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?-1.89% · 2026-10-24 | No | 59% | 55% | 0.348 |
| Will Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?+2.33% · 2026-10-24 | No | 70% | 68% | 0.090 |
| Will Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?-0.07% · 2026-10-24 | No | 45% | 59% | 0.203 |
| Will S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?+0.64% · 2026-10-24 | No | 57% | 59% | 0.185 |
| Will Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?-7.18% · 2026-10-24 | No | 43% | 45% | 0.185 |
| Will Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?-4.52% · 2026-10-24 | No | 47% | 45% | 0.221 |
| Will Crude oil close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?+3.99% · 2026-10-24 | No | 45% | 41% | 0.302 |
| Will VIX close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-24 than on 2026-10-17?-2.70% · 2026-10-24 | No | 66% | 68% | 0.436 |
| Will SZSE Component close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-22 than on 2026-10-15?-3.48% · 2026-10-22 | No | 32% | 27% | 0.102 |
| Will ChiNext close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-22 than on 2026-10-15?-5.11% · 2026-10-22 | No | 34% | 32% | 0.116 |
| Will SSE Composite close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-22 than on 2026-10-15?-1.84% · 2026-10-22 | No | 32% | 41% | 0.102 |
| Will Gold close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-17 than on 2026-10-10?+0.58% · 2026-10-17 | No | 62% | 64% | 0.144 |
| Will Dow Jones close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-17 than on 2026-10-10?+1.33% · 2026-10-17 | No | 60% | 64% | 0.160 |
| Will Nasdaq close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-17 than on 2026-10-10?-4.06% · 2026-10-17 | No | 65% | 68% | 0.422 |
| Will S&P 500 close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-17 than on 2026-10-10?-1.37% · 2026-10-17 | No | 69% | 64% | 0.476 |
| Will Hang Seng Tech close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-17 than on 2026-10-10?-4.10% · 2026-10-17 | No | 48% | 41% | 0.230 |
| Will Hang Seng close higher on the first trading day on or after 2026-10-17 than on 2026-10-10?-1.27% · 2026-10-17 | No | 50% | 50% | 0.250 |
Direction calls
Rule-based calls on the combined tech-and-market trend, checked at each target date. Directions and confidence only.
Direction track record
37%Hit rate
145Resolved
53Correct
4Open
Next week38% · 32/84
Next month34% · 21/61
Calibration
Hit rate by confidence · 50% coin-flip reference
Open
Next weekCombined tech & market trend
Leaning downConfidence · high
Combined tech & market trend
Confidence · high
Drivers
- Foundation models+0.00
- Chips & compute+0.00
- AI apps & business+0.00
How it resolves
Checked by the sign of cross-asset market momentum on the target date.
What would change it
- Data coverage falls below the minimum threshold
- The main driving topics cool significantly in the next period
Next monthCombined tech & market trend
Leaning downConfidence · high
Combined tech & market trend
Confidence · high
Drivers
- Funding & M&A+0.42
- Chips & compute+0.16
- Foundation models+0.12
How it resolves
Checked by the sign of cross-asset market momentum on the target date.
What would change it
- Data coverage falls below the minimum threshold
- The main driving topics cool significantly in the next period
Next quarterCombined tech & market trend
Leaning downConfidence · high
Combined tech & market trend
Confidence · high
Drivers
- Funding & M&A+0.42
- Chips & compute+0.16
- Foundation models+0.12
How it resolves
Checked by the sign of cross-asset market momentum on the target date.
What would change it
- Data coverage falls below the minimum threshold
- The main driving topics cool significantly in the next period
Next yearCombined tech & market trend
Not enough dataConfidence · low
Combined tech & market trend
Confidence · low
Drivers
How it resolves
Checked by the sign of cross-asset market momentum on the target date.
What would change it
Resolved
| Forecast | Target date | Called | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next month2026-10-09 | 2026-11-08 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-11-01 | 2026-11-08 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-10-08 | 2026-11-07 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-31 | 2026-11-07 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-10-07 | 2026-11-06 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-30 | 2026-11-06 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-10-06 | 2026-11-05 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-29 | 2026-11-05 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-10-05 | 2026-11-04 | Leaning downhigh | Range-bound | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-28 | 2026-11-04 | Leaning downhigh | Range-bound | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-10-04 | 2026-11-03 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-27 | 2026-11-03 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-10-03 | 2026-11-02 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-26 | 2026-11-02 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-10-02 | 2026-11-01 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-25 | 2026-11-01 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-10-01 | 2026-10-31 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-24 | 2026-10-31 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-09-30 | 2026-10-30 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-23 | 2026-10-30 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-29 | 2026-10-29 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-22 | 2026-10-29 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-28 | 2026-10-28 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-21 | 2026-10-28 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-27 | 2026-10-27 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-20 | 2026-10-27 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-09-26 | 2026-10-26 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-19 | 2026-10-26 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-09-25 | 2026-10-25 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-18 | 2026-10-25 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-24 | 2026-10-24 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-17 | 2026-10-24 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-23 | 2026-10-23 | Range-boundhigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-16 | 2026-10-23 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-22 | 2026-10-22 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-15 | 2026-10-22 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-21 | 2026-10-21 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-14 | 2026-10-21 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-09-20 | 2026-10-20 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-13 | 2026-10-20 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next month2026-09-19 | 2026-10-19 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning down | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-12 | 2026-10-19 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-18 | 2026-10-18 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning up | ✗ Incorrect |
| Next week2026-10-11 | 2026-10-18 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-17 | 2026-10-17 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-10 | 2026-10-17 | Leaning uphigh | Leaning up | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-16 | 2026-10-16 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-09 | 2026-10-16 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next month2026-09-15 | 2026-10-15 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
| Next week2026-10-08 | 2026-10-15 | Leaning downhigh | Leaning down | ✓ Correct |
Latest 50 shown; record covers all 145.
Scenarios
Driving forces
B
Upside
Leaning upTopic momentum accelerates again.
C
Downside
Leaning downRisk events increase while market breadth narrows.
For information only, not financial advice.